Financial analyst uses scenario planning to predict rosy future for Apple investors


An article in CNNMoney suggests results of the smartphone patent wars will boost Apple’s share price from $35 to $260. Financial analyst Philip Elmer-DeWitt used scenario planning techniques, plugging in multiple outcomes, to derive his conclusions.

Florian Mueller suggests not enough potential outcomes were fed into the model, particularly with respect to Android’s momentum in capturing market share.

Scenario planning is a tool analysts should master. IP owners, managers and analysts are invited to a virtual workshop, on March 8, at which David Dufendach and Jason Andrews of Grant Thornton LLP will serve to demystify this advanced financial analysis technique, offering a thorough review of Monte Carlo simulations, removing its complexity by providing real world, case studies and hands-on examples.


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